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US Presidential Election Betting 2020

Betting on the US Presidential election historically has never been particularly big in the UK, that was until Donald Trump’s election in 2016.  Bookmakers expected Trump to be no more than a protest vote for white-nationalists, offering high prices even the day before the result.

That shortsightedness cost betting companies millions as savvy punters who saw through media reports made a tidy packet on the result.

The bookies were hit further with both the UK Brexit result and the 2017 UK General Election and so it is highly unlikely they will give much skewed odds again.  Still the interest in Donald Trump is a global affair and we have never seen a more controversial president in modern history so the betting on the 2020 election will be bigger than ever.

Many people in the US itself cannot bet on the result but that is not the case in the UK and Europe.  If you fancy a punt on who the next US president will be then we have collated some of the best promotions and deals that could add value to your wagers.  Further down you can read about the election, controversies, format and history.

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Next US President 2020 Odds

Trump Warren Biden Sanders
11/10 4/1 11/2 11/1
10/11 4/1 13/2 10/1
11/10 4/1 5/1 10/1

Odds Prices Updated 18/09/2019

2020 Presidential Election

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Currently scheduled to take place on the 3rd of November 2020, the presidential election in the United States of America will be the 59th of the country’s history. Whilst candidates representing the likes of the Libertarian Party, the Green Party and countless independents will run, it will, as it always does, come down to a choice between the Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate for the American public. But what will be the key battlegrounds?

There are a number of areas around the United States that are pretty much locked-in to be either Democratic or Republican, but there are plenty of other areas where things are far from decided and that could prove to be key for the destination of the presidency.

During exit polls for the 2018 midterms it appeared that the Democrats ‘won’ the votes of urban residents and Republicans were successful in smaller cities, but the suburbs were split. Rather than a specific city, then, it’s possible that the 2020 election will come down to who is able to win over more suburban voters.

One thing Donald Trump has ensured during his time in office is that the nation has become more divided than ever before. People have picked their camps, with very few voters ambivalent about the current incumbent one way or the other. Whilst suburban voters may be key, there were four states that flipped Republican in 2016 and might be the most important places on the macro scale rather than the micro. They are:

  • Pennsylvania
  • Michigan
  • Wisconsin
  • Florida

Some analysts are even narrowing down the entire thing to just Wisconsin as the key state, so if you want to follow how things are going in just one place then that’s the one to watch. That’s also something of an indication of just how close this election is likely to be.

Sensible people looking from the outside in might well think that Trump’s performance as president has been so bad that it will be a walkover for the left, but the reality is that politics is now far too polarising in America, if not the world, to say that with any certainty.

How Has Trump’s Presidency Gone?

anti-trump bannerFor his critics, Donald Trump’s presidency has been about lying, obfuscating and narrowly avoiding being impeached. For those that love him, however, there’s far more to it than that and they’re willing to turn a blind eye to his worst traits because he’s doing what they want him to. One of the biggest problems when it comes to analysing Trump’s time in the White House, of course, is looking at what is true and what’s not.

According to the man himself and his administration, for example, more than 4 million jobs have been created since his election, with more Americans being employed than ever before. He’s also been inclined to claim that African-American unemployment has hit the lowest rate ever, at the same time as median household income has hit a record-high. The problem is, we don’t know how much of that is actually true.

It takes little more than a casual search of the internet to find countless sites dedicated to investigating the lies told by Donald Trump and his administration. One of his most prominent voices, Kellyanne Conway, even invented a new term for the lies told by the administration, referring to them as ‘alternative facts’. The result of which is that it’s almost impossible to know which things about his administration’a achievements are true and which are just outright lies.

Houston Press tried to take a positive outlook and wrote about the 5 ‘objectively good things’ that Trump has achieved in office, which amount to the following:

  • Prison Reform
  • Gun Control
  • Donating His Presidential Salary
  • Union Representation
  • HIV / AIDS Relief

Obviously those that don’t particularly like Trump would argue with every single one of them, not least of all because he appears to be making money out of his presidency in every way possible, most of them in rather shady ways, so the fact that he donated his salary as president isn’t actually convincing everyone of his good intentions.

There’s also the fact that he hasn’t really done much to control the use or sale of guns during his time in office, with many people believing that he’s actually under the thumb of the National Rifle Association. Even so, it would be unfair to say that he has done nothing since being elected, with his migrant separation policy being an unpopular one but one that has seen people deported and their children not allowed to enter the States lawfully, which his supporters think is a good thing.

Major Controversies

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It’s fair to say that expectations for Trump were low before he even took office, with many of his critics feeling that he failed to live up to them.

The key thing that has dominated his presidency to date is a series of controversies, of which there have been many. In fact, there’s a decent argument that there have been too many to date to list them all, so here we’ll look at some of the biggest ones.

Russia

Without doubt the biggest controversy of the Trump presidency to date surrounds his relationship with Russia, specifically with regards to the 2016 election and potential interference. Such was the extent to which there was suspicion surrounding what happened that the Democrats appointed a special prosecutor to look into what happened.

Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel Investigation resulted in 34 individuals and 3 companies being indicted, with as many as 5 Trump associates or campaign officials pleading guilty to charges. The report itself wasn’t made public, but when giving testimony Mueller himself said, “If we had confidence that the president clearly did not commit a crime, we would have said that”.

Stormy Daniels

During the presidential campaign Donald Trump allegedly paid porn actress Stormy Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, $130,000 in order to stop her from testifying about an extra-marital affair that he had with her a decade before. It was a story that enveloped his presidency for a time, not least of all because the Republican Party is known as being one based on the idea of family values.

Trump had married his current wife, Melania, in 2005 and they had a son together, Barron, the following year, so he was married at the time of the alleged affair. Daniels said that trump didn’t mention either his wife or son during their time together, when the sex was ‘nothing crazy…textbook generic’.

James Comey

There has been something of a revolving door of staff members for the Trump administration, but the firing of FBI Director James Comey in May of 2017 set Washington tongues wagging. It’s believed by many that Comey was essentially responsible for Donald Trump winning the election, given that his announcement in 2016 that he was investigating emails found on Hilary Clinton’s laptop tipping the Republican over the edge for many voters that mistrusted Clinton.

Whether that’s fair or not, Trump chose to fire Comey when he was in the middle of investigating the alleged interference in the 2016 election by Russian operatives. It was seen by many as an attempt to stop the investigation dead in its tracks, with Trump having also asked Comey to drop his investigation into Trump’s former National Security Adviser, Michael Flynn.

Profile Of Donald Trump

donald trumpDonald John Trump was born on the 14th of June 1946 in Queens, New York City. He studied economics at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania and in 1971 took control of his family’s real-estate business. He renamed it as the Trump Organisation, expanding it into Manhattan as well as building casinos, hotels, skyscrapers and, of course, golf courses.

Between 1996 and 2015 he owned the Miss Universe and Miss USA beauty pageants. He was also the producer and host of The Apprentice in the US between 2003 and 2015. His net worth is estimated to be in the region of $3.1 billion. Having not revealed his tax returns, however, it’s impossible for that figure to be accurately spoken of. By April of 2018 Trump and the businesses that he ran had been involved in as many as 4,000 state and federal legal actions.

Donald Trump married Ivana Zelníčková in 1977, having three children together. They divorced in 1992, with Ivana citing his affair with Maria Maples as the main reason for the split. Maples and Trump then married in 1993 and had one child but got divorced in 1999. He then married Melania Knauss in 2005, having one son. He has numerous associations with Christian spiritual leaders, describing himself as Presbyterian.

Format Of US Elections

us election formatIf you’ve ever heard anything about presidential elections in the United States of America then you’ll have heard people talk about the electoral college. That’s got nothing to do with educational establishments but rather is the body of electors that was established under the United States Constitution.

There are 538 electors, which means that a candidate needs to win 270 electoral votes or more in order to be elected president. Each individual state is allowed to decide how their electors are chosen, with the state’s number of electors being equal to the combined number of Senate and House of Representatives in the state’s membership.

Not everyone is a fan of the electoral college system, predominantly because it’s possible for a person to lose the popular vote, which is the overall number of votes of people in the country, and yet win the election because they won the necessary number of votes from the electoral college.

Added to that the fact that candidates can essentially just rule out needing to campaign in certain states that they won’t win and you can see why some feel it doesn’t represent the people effectively.

The people vote for electors, who then cast their vote for the president and vice-president according to how the people that the represent voted. Presidential elections happen every four years, with voters going to the polls on the first Tuesday after November 1st. The winning president is then sworn into office in January of the following year.

Traditional Swing States

scalesThere are numerous factors that are taken into account when considering whether or not a state is a ‘swing state’. It’s not as though all states that have been swing states for one election will be in the next one, but there are certainly a selection of states that are considered to be ‘traditional’ swing states. There are seven such states, which are as follows:

  • Iowa
  • New Hampshire
  • Virginia
  • Florida
  • Nevada
  • Colorado
  • Ohio

It’s common for states to swing back and forth depending on who it is that is running for president and what they represent. The idea of a swing state is one in which it’s a marginal call regarding which way the state is going to go, so both parties tend to concentrate time and advertising money on them in order to try to swing things in their favour.

Some people, such as the pollster Nate Silver, use the term ‘swing state’ to mean states that could swing the election one way or another if they were to change hands. Perhaps the most famous example of this came in 2000 when the election between George Bush and Al Gore was so close that it literally came down to which of them won Florida, with the former doing so by a margin of 537 votes.

History of the US Election

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The manner of US presidential elections was established by Article 2 of the US Constitution. It was seen as a compromise at the time between those that wanted Congress to choose the next president and those that believed it was a job for the people. In 53 of the 58 elections held between the first one and the 2016 election, the winner of the popular vote also won the electoral college vote.

The first ever elected president in the United States was George Washington, who was followed by John Adams and then Thomas Jefferson. Washington was unopposed in both of his presidential bids, with the first proper presidential race coming about in 1796 when Adam and Thomas Jefferson went head-to-head. The two battled it out again four years later, this time with a reverse result.

This was all during the country’s more formative years, of course. Perhaps the most dominating factor in the nineteenth century was that of slavery, with things coming to a head under the presidency of Abraham Lincoln. It led to the American Civil War, with Lincoln eventually ending slavery before being assassinated by John Wilkes Booth in 1865.

There have been any number of controversial elections over the years, not least of all in 1968 when Richard Nixon defeated George Wallace in an election that was mainly about the civil rights movement and the Vietnam war. Nixon’s presidency was a controversial one all of its own, with the Watergate Scandal earning him the nickname ‘Tricky Dicky’ and eventually forcing him to resign.

Arguably the most controversial of all presidential elections of the modern era came about in 2000 when George W. Bush went up against Al Gore. It was the first one since 1888 that saw the president elected by winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote. Gore had conceded on the night of the election, only to retreat his concession when it turned out that Florida was too close to call.

In the end the issue of the vote in Florida went to the Supreme Court who sided in favour of Bush and ruled out the possibility of a recount for the state of Florida, meaning that Bush won by 271 electoral college votes to Gore’s 266, though Gore won by 50,996,582 to 50,465,062 in the popular vote.

Previous US Presidential Election Results (Since 1916)

Election Year Winner % Popular Vote Party
1916 Woodrow Wilson 49.2% Democrat
1920 Warren Harding 60.3% Republican
1924 Calvin Coolidge 54.0% Republican
1928 Herbert Hoover 58.2% Republican
1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt 57.4% Democrat
1936 Franklin D. Roosevelt 60.8% Democrat
1940 Franklin D. Roosevelt 54.7% Democrat
1944 Franklin D. Roosevelt 53.4% Democrat
1948 Harry S. Truman 49.6% Democrat
1952 Dwight D. Eisenhower 55.2% Republican
1956 Dwight D. Eisenhower 57.4% Republican
1960 John F. Kennedy 49.7% Democrat
1964 Lydon B. Johnson 61.0% Democrat
1968 Richard Nixon 43.4% Republican
1972 Richard Nixon 60.7% Republican
1976 Jimmy Carter 50.1% Democrat
1980 Ronald Regan 50.7% Republican
1984 Ronald Regan 58.8% Republican
1988 George H. W. Bush 53.4% Republican
1992 Bill Clinton 43.0% Democrat
1996 Bill Clinton 49.2% Democrat
2000 George W. Bush 47.9% Republican
2004 George W. Bush 50.7% Republican
2008 Barack Obama 52.9% Democrat
2012 Barack Obama 51.1% Democrat
2016 Donald Trump 46.0% Republican
2020 ? ? ?
2024 ? ? ?
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