UK General Election Betting – 5th July 2029
Bookmakers, as well as pretty much anyone else in the world, were taken by surprise when then Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap UK general election for the 8th June 2017. Many agree the move backfired as the Tories lost the slim majority they did have resulting in a hung Parliament, however those betting on a poor Conservative / strong Labour result ended up cashing in on great odds.
Two years on 12th December 2019 later we had another election, the third in four years. This time however the results did follow the polls with the Conservatives securing a strong majority on the promise to ‘Get Brexit Done’.
They did get Brexit done but a string of issues ranging from Party Gate to awarding Covid contracts to ‘friends’ resulted in a loss of public trust. The fact that Johnson was elected in 2019 but we then had Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, both without a mandate, caused further problems for the Conservatives. This was all capitalised upon by Labour the Lib Dems and Reform and allowed Labour to score a historic swing at the 2024 election to win by a landslide with a strong mandate from the people – it is notable though that their vote share only increased by just over 1% and most of the swing was caused by a rejection of the Tories rather than a love for Labour as such. Labour have a large majority but it is based on thin margins and so it could easily swing wildly again in the next election.
The next UK General election will take place in before on July 5th 2029. On this page you will find all of the latest betting offers for the UK election as soon as they come in, including the best enhanced odds, money back and free bet promotions from top UK betting sites.
Many bookies are now getting seriously scared of election markets following serial political shocks of late: May losing her majority, Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Fortunately there are many great betting sites that will take the challenge and still give great odds and promotions.
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How to Bet on the Election
The election on the 8th June 2017 presented punters with a unique betting opportunity. The lack of a long lead up and months of speculation meant both the polls and the betting markets were largely unsure of what will happen.
Following the many unexpected political results of recent years many more people bet on the 2017 election than ever before and those that took advantage of big prices, just as had been done with Trump and Brexit, found big gains on election night.
Shortly after the snap election was called punters could get over 10/1 on a hung parliament, over 20/1 for Labour to get 251+ seats and similar odds for the Conservatives to get less than their 2015 total of 330.
The 2019 election, however, was the first since 2010 to go pretty much in line with the polls, the Conservatives winning a comfortable majority of 80 and Labour suffering their worst defeat since 1935.
In the short space of five years, however, Labour’s worst ever defeat turned into their second largest ever victory as voters rejected Tory failings on mass. This time it was the Conservatives who suffered their worst return of seats ever, just 121, while Labour took 411 seats while the Lib Dems managed 72 seats, their best ever result.
The 2024 election did go the way the polls and the bookies expected but what was interesting about it was the rise of other parties such as Reform. This destabilised the first past the post system and resulted in Labour winning a massive majority of 63.2% of seats but with only 33.7% vote share, only 1.7% better than they did in 2019 when they had their worst defeat in 80 years. Conversely the Tories gained only 121 seats from 23.7% of the vote while reform managed just 5 seats from 14.3% of the vote and the Lib Dems got a massive 72 seats from 12% of the vote.
It goes to show how FPTP works when you have two major parties and one minor party but it starts to break down when you have multiple parties now attracting large vote shares. Labour won so many seats because they made gains in areas where they needed to flip seats but actually lost vote share in many seats they held. The protest vote towards Reform to punish the Conservatives did the most damage taking at least 12-13% of the Tory vote but because the Reform vote was spread out they were unable to translate that into many seats finishing second in many constituencies. The only party that received a number of seats to match their vote share was the Lib Dems with 12.2% of the vote and 11.1% of seats in parliament.
What this all shows is that unless changes are made to the electoral system if we still have first past the post come the next election then there could be more wild swings. The presence of Reform, Lid Dems, Greens and national parties such as the SNP mean that predicting outcomes with FPTP has become much more difficult. That means uncertainty and as we know that can mean value in betting markets if you think you know how those swings will pan out.
It is far too early to tell how the fine margins will play out in the next election and what role parties like Reform will have. In an election like this betting on specific seats and areas can be an area where value can be found. This is especially true if you understand local issues that may not be reflected in national level poling. For example, in 2024 while Labour achieved a massive majority flipping hundreds of Tory seats they lost seats to independents in the North and in the midlands where large Muslim populations voted against the Labour stance on Gaza.
General Election Betting Markets
- Most Seats – This is the main betting market for the election, basically this is betting on the winner in the final result. This doesn’t necessarily mean a party will win enough seats to form a government simply more seats than any other party.
Overall Majority or No Majority – In order to form a government a single party must win over half the seats contested. In the UK there are 650 seats. You can also bet on no overall majority.- Prime Minister After Election – Naturally the party that wins the most seats will usually be the party that installs the Prime Minister. The odds for this mirror the most seats market quite closely. For example, when the election was called in May 2024 Labour were 1/20 to win most seats and Starmer 1/20 to be next PM.
- Total Seats – Bet on the exact number of seats to be won by a party. This market can be found as Over/Under, e.g. bet on the labour to win over/under 375.5 seats or in ranges, e.g party to win 250-275, 275-300 seats, etc.).
- Betting Without – In an election like 2024 where it is fairly certain Labour will win the most seats you can find markets where you can bet on the most seats without Labour, i.e. who will be the second biggest party.
- Local Constituency / Seat – Closer to the election you should be able to bet on which party will win any of the 650 seats up for grabs.
- Turnout Percentage – Bet on the percentage of the voting adult population that will actually turn out and cast a vote. This can be round as a range (e.g 65.01-70%, 70.01 % or more, etc.) or as an equal odds 2-way over/under market (e.g. over/under 63.5% at odds of 5/6).
- Vote Percentage – Betting on the vote percentage that each party will get. For example conservatives to get 19.99% or lower, 20.00-21.99, 22.00-23.99, etc.
- Seat Loses / Gains – You can also bet on how many seats may be won or lost by a party compared to what they had before the election. E.g. Conservatives to lose 1-50 seats, 51-100 seats, 101-150 seats, etc.
Special Bets – The wonders of online betting now means there are a multitude of special bets you can place, especially as the election draws closer. These include betting on individual MP’s to lose their seats, betting on seats/majority in the individual nations of the UK, etc.- Next Party Leader – Not strictly an election market but considering the likelihood of party leaders losing their jobs if they lose badly its a good one to keep an eye on.
- Over/Under (2-Way) – Many of the markets listed above are also available in an Over/Under format, also called a 2-Way market. These allow you to basically guess higher or lower with fairly equivalent odds either way. This could be labour to win over or under 350.5 seats, both roughly evens for example, or there to be over or under a 63.5% voter turnout, etc.
General Election FAQ
- Why did we have a snap election in 2017 & 2019? Theresa May in 2017 and Boris Johnson in 2019 both decided that needed a mandate from the British people to effectively implement their Brexit strategies. This failed for May who actually lost seats and was forced to form a coalition with the DUP that lasted for two years but failed to convince the house to vote through her withdrawal agreement. Boris Johnson succeeded in 2019 where May failed winning a large majority to allow his Brexit bill to be passed.
- How many seats are there in the UK General Election? There are 650 seats contested in the election since 2010. Boundary changes have come in reducing the number of seats in some areas and increasing them in others, based on population (Scotland -2, Wales -8, England +10). The number of total seats has not changed and remains at 650.
- How many seats in each country? There are 543 seats in England (up from 533 in 2019), 57 in Scotland (down from 59), 32 in Wales (down from 40) and 18 in Northern Ireland (no change).
- How many seats does each party have now? Following the 2024 election the Conservatives held 121 seats (up from from 365 in 2019), Labour 411 (up from 203), Scottish National Party (SNP) 9 (down from 48), Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) 72 (up from 11), Reform 5, Plaid Cymru 4, Green Party 4, Democratic Unionist Party 5, Sinn Fein 7 (they do not take up seats), Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 2, Alliance Party 1, Ulster Unionist Party 1, Traditionalist Unionist Voice 1, Independent 6. This will changed somewhat over the parliament due to byelections and side switching.
- How many seats are needed for a majority? You would think you would need 325 seats (half of 650) to have a majority but in reality less are required as Northern Ireland’s Sinn Fein party, who do not take up their seats, reduce this. Sinn Fein now currently have 7 seats. A Party will therefore likely need 321-2 seats or more for a working majority this time around.
- What is the current majority? There is a current majority of 172, with labour are the biggest holding 411 seats. Even if all opposition parties now cooperate they will need at least 86 labour to vote with them (assuming all MP’s vote yes or no).
- How many political parties are there? There are 428 Parties in Great Britain and 36 in Northern Ireland. In reality only a small few of these stand any chance of winning seats.
- What is first past the post? In the UK the winner of a seat is simply the first person to achieve more votes than any of the other parties contesting that seat, irrespective of the percentage of people who actually vote for them. There are no second rounds of voting or second preference votes in the UK general election. Votes can be recounted if the count is close and a candidate requests it.
- What is a coalition government? If one party wins enough seats then the Queen can ask the party leader to form a government. If one party does not achieve enough seats they can form coalitions with other parties to achieve a majority and form a coalition government (this occurred in 2010 between the Lib Dems and Conservatives). If a coalition government cannot be formed either a single party can govern as a minority government or a new election will be called and the current government will remain in power until this time.
- What is turnout in an election? There are over 45 million registered voters in the UK. If all turned out to vote the percentage would be 100%. In reality a lot of people do not vote. The turnout for the 2024 election was 60%, down 7.3% from 67.3% in 2019, in 2017 it was 68.7% up 2.3% from 2015. The 2017 turnout was the highest for a long time and may be due to greater voter engagement of late due to Brexit along with one of the highest turnouts of young voters in a generation. In 2019 the slightly lower turnout was likely due to the fact it was a December election and it was cold and wet with many people that would have voted in the summer staying in this time around. The 2024 election saw the lowest turnout since 2001 and this was attributed to voter apathy along with lots of Tory voters staying home.
- What is a poll? This is a sample of opinions from the electorate (the voters) that attempts to predict what the result will be. Although polls have always been seen as a good benchmark they have been catastrophically wrong lately, in the 2017 election, the EU referendum and the American presidential election. Then again they were almost spot on in 2019. Take all polls with a pinch of salt.
- What is an exit poll? This is the final poll taken, usually by people standing outside polling stations asking people how they voted. This is the most reliable type of poll although by the time this is released voting will be closed – you can still however bet right up until the final result is announced.
- What is the popular vote? Parties that win the most total votes don’t always win elections. Due to the first past the post system a party can in theory have a higher percentage of people voting for them but achieve less seats, this is known as the popular vote. The UK general election result all depends on the number of seats won not the proportion of people who vote for a given party. The most stark example of this was in 2024 when Labour win just 33.7% of the popular vote but achieved 63.2% of all seats.
- Who will win the next general election? Given the current political state in the UK and the huge failure of polls of late who knows, although there does seem to be a big swing towards Labour all over the country but particularly in traditionally social heartlands of the North of England and Scotland. Labour suffered their worst defeat in 84 years in 2019 and converted that into their second biggest victory ever by 2024 and so it is fair to say the British political first past the post system is creaking and future wild swings should not be unexpected. Today it seems people are dumping traditional party loyalties and voting differently between elections. It means predicting who will win even in so called ‘safe’ seats is now much harder than it was.
- Who could end up as Prime Minister? Any leader who’s party stands in enough seats to win an overall majority could be the next PM. In reality only the Labour or Conservative leader can now end up as PM right now.
- What is left wing, right wing and centre in politics? This is a historical division, the Tories traditionally sit on the right wing of the commons and the main party in opposition (currently Labour) on the left wing. This is where right and left wing phrase comes from, generally right wingers align to conservative values and left wing to Labour values. Many parties, and indeed individual MP’s, describe themselves as centre, left of center or right of centre, this means they share aspects from both right and left wing policies. The Lib Dems for example are seen as a centre party.
Previous Election Results (Since 1918)
| Election Year | Winner* | Majority# | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1918 | Conservative / Liberal | 238 | 57.20% |
| 1922 | Conservative | 74 | 73% |
| 1923 | Labour / Liberal | No Majority (-98) | 71.10% |
| 1924 | Conservative | 210 | 77% |
| 1929 | Labour | No Majority (-42) | 76.30% |
| 1931 | National Labour | 492 | 76.40% |
| 1935 | Conservative | 242 | 71.10% |
| 1945 | Labour | 146 | 72.80% |
| 1950 | Labour | 5 | 83.90% |
| 1951 | Conservative | 17 | 82.60% |
| 1955 | Conservative | 60 | 76.80% |
| 1959 | Conservative | 100 | 78.70% |
| 1964 | Labour | 4 | 77.10% |
| 1966 | Labour | 98 | 75.80% |
| 1970 | Conservative | 30 | 72% |
| 1974 (Feb) | Labour | No Majority (-33) | 78.80% |
| 1974 (Oct) | Labour | 3 | 72.80% |
| 1979 | Conservative | 43 | 76% |
| 1983 | Conservative | 144 | 72.70% |
| 1987 | Conservative | 102 | 75.30% |
| 1992 | Conservative | 21 | 77.70% |
| 1997 | Labour | 179 | 71.00% |
| 2001 | Labour | 167 | 59.40% |
| 2005 | Labour | 66 | 61.40% |
| 2010 | Conservative / Lib Dem | 78 | 65.10% |
| 2015 | Conservative | 12 | 66.10% |
| 2017 | Conservative / DUP | 3 | 68.4% |
| 2019 | Conservative | 80 | 67.3% |
| 2024 | Labour | 172 | 60% |
| 2029 | ? | ? | ? |
* Winner is classified as the party or coalition that forms a government
# Majority when government is formed
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