What is behind Manchester United’s downfall?

20 topflight titles, 13 FA Cups, six League Cups and three Champions Leagues. Statistics that make Manchester United one of England’s best performing clubs. Add to that their immense global following and them being one of the highest revenue-generating clubs, and they can even be classified as one of world’s biggest clubs.

However, gloom has replaced glory since Sir Alex Ferguson retired after 27 seasons in 2013. Since, the Red Devils have not won a new Premier League title. Instead, they have recorded a long list of negative records, failed transfers and managers not meeting expectations.

So, what are the reasons for Manchester United’s fall over the last decade? How bad has their on-field performance really been? And what are they changing to return to the glory days?

Downturn in Premier League performance

Since the introduction of the Premier League in 1992/93, Manchester United has won 13 titles. The most and five more than the eight won by second ranked Manchester City. However, City has won them all since 2011/12, while United won their last title in 2012/13.

Under Sir Alex Ferguson (1992/93-2012/13), United won 62 percent of the Premier League titles. Except for the period 2003/04-2005/06, the club never lost out on the title in two consecutive seasons. Furthermore, they always finished inside the top three. The current drought of 11 title-less seasons, with the 12th likely to follow, and a record-low eighth place in 2023/24 is therefore a significant fall in performance and far below fans’ expectations.

This fall is logically attributed to Ferguson’s retirement and United’s inability to find a successful successor. Yet, other factors play a role as well. For starters, success is generally cyclical. With successful periods alternated by less successful spells. Which makes United’s dominance under Ferguson in the first two decades of the Premier League’s existence quite remarkable. More so as by winning the inaugural Premier League season, the club ended a 26-year drought of winning the topflight title.

More points required to win the league

While United’s performance has dropped during the last decade, other clubs have improved. Especially Manchester City, who won eight out of the last 13 Premier League campaigns (62 percent). Together with Liverpool and now Arsenal, they have raised the standard and league’s competitiveness even further.

Now clubs must collect more points to win the league. Since 2013/14, the champion has collected on average 91 points. With City even finishing on 100 points in 2017/18. United have only obtained 91 points or more on one occasion (1999/00, 91 points) since the league went from 22 to 20 clubs in 1995/96. While collecting on average 84 points during their championship runs since that format change.

Overall, United’s points tally has fallen off as well. Between 2013/14 and 2023/24, United collected on average 68 points per season. While this was nearing 83 points between 1995/96 and 2012/13. During that period, United had on average 7.5 points less than the champion when they lost out on the title. This has increased to 23 points on average since their title-drought started in 2013/14. Meaning that on average Ferguson missed out on the Premier League title by a smaller margin than his successors.

United’s attacking output and defensive record has worsened as well. Compared to the Premier League seasons with 20 clubs under Ferguson, United scores on average 17 goals less per season (78 vs 61). At the same time, they concede on average 42 goals per season, around eight more than during the Ferguson period. Which has caused the average goal difference to more than halve (44 to 19).

United’s best and worst PL season post-Ferguson

José Mourinho managed United’s best post-Ferguson Premier League season with a second place in 2017/18. Which has only been matched by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in 2020/21. And while Solskjaer’s team scored the most goals (73), Mourinho’s team earned the most points (81). In addition, Mourinho showcased his defensive mastery with United conceding just 28 goals. Romelu Lukaku scored 16 out of 68 goals which gave United a positive goal difference of 40. That it was only enough for second place was also due to Manchester City being in a league of their own. The Citizens collected 100 points, scoring 106 goals and conceding 27.

Mourinho’s season still fell short to most of Ferguson’s seasons, but it was much better than what United achieved during the 2023/24 season. In Erik ten Hag’s second season in charge, the Dutch manager finished eighth. The lowest the club has ever ranked in the Premier League. They would have missed out on European football had they not won the FA Cup. Remarkably, with 60 points they collected more points than during the 2021/22 season (58 points, sixth). Despite having a goal difference of minus one, they still had the tied fifth best defensive record (58 goals conceded). The 57 goals scored, however, was at least 30 percent (17 goals) less than higher-ranked clubs.

Being outscored

Output like this makes it extremely difficult to compete with the best, let alone win the league. During the 11 seasons since Ferguson left, United has ranked the lowest of the traditional Top Six teams on five occasions. With Chelsea the only club to record lower league finishes (10th in 2015/16 and 12th in 2022/23). Across those seasons the goal tally compared to the other Top Six clubs seems to be the biggest issue. With United scoring less in 10 out of the 11 seasons than the other five’s average. Only under Solskjaer in 2020/21 did United score more goals (73) than the other five did on average.

Defensively the club did better. In six out of 11 seasons did United concede less than the other five’s average. Especially Louis van Gaal’s period was defensively solid (37 and 35 goals conceded). Although not as strong as Mourinho’s first two seasons in which United only conceded 29 and 28 goals.

Teamwork and solid tactics can result in defensive brilliance, but attacking output is often more dependent on individual skill and prolific goal scorers. Under Ferguson, United had several such as Dwight Yorke, Ruud van Nistelrooij, Dimitar Berbatov, Robin van Persie, Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo. In the Premier League under the Scot, United top scorer scored on average around 20 goals. This has decreased to 15 in the post-Ferguson era. During half of the seasons under Ferguson, the top scorer scored at least 20 goals. Since, the highest goal tally a Red Devil has registered is 18 (Bruno Fernandes in 2020/21 and Cristiano Ronaldo in 2021/22).

Seven trophies post-Ferguson

Performance cannot only be judged by Premier League results though. Since Ferguson’s retirement, United has won seven trophies. Including one Europa League and two FA Cups, League Cups and Community Shields. Which is a haul many other clubs would sign up for. In number of trophies amongst the Top Six, City has outdone its rivals with 21 trophies since 2013/14. Arsenal (nine) has won four FA Cups and five Community Shields. Chelsea (eight) has won amongst others two Premier League titles, a Champions League (2020/21), and a Europa League (2018/19). While Liverpool (eight) won their first Premier League title in 2019/20 and their sixth Champions League in 2018/19. Tottenham have not won a trophy since their League Cup win in 2007/08.

Compared to United’s main rivals it is not too bad. However, with an average of 0.6 trophies per season, it is, compared to Ferguson’s 1.4 trophies per season (38 trophies in total). Add to that Ferguson’s successors’ inability to implement a clear playing style that both wins matches and aligns with the club’s culture, and true glory seems a long way off.

No continuity with high manager turnover

Since Ferguson left, United has had 8 different managers (including three interim managers). Out of the Top Six, only Chelsea (11) and Tottenham (nine) have had more managers during that period.

David Moyes succeeded Ferguson in the summer of 2013. The Scotsman had previously managed Preston North End (four years, winning promotion to the first division) and Everton (11 years). Backed by Ferguson, it seemed a solid choice for the long run. Despite concerns about his lack of experience managing a club as big as United and having no Champions League experience.

Succeeding Ferguson was always going to be a tough task, and Moyes’ tenure came to an end four matches before the end of his first season. United won 51 percent of the 51 matches he managed, collecting 1.73 points per match. Elimination in the Champions League quarterfinals (against Bayern Munich, 4-2 aggregate) and a seventh place in the league were below expectations. Especially since United had not ranked below third since the introduction of the Premier League.

Van Gaal: different manager, more experience

United decided to bring in Louis van Gaal. A manager with more experience at the highest level, having managed at clubs like Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Ajax. And winning multiple trophies at each, including one Champions League (and two times runner-up). He had also just led the Dutch national side to a third place at the 2014 World Cup. Known for an attacking playing style early in his managerial career and giving youngsters a chance, United thought him to be the ideal candidate to rebuild a strong foundation.

Defensively it was solid, but offensively it was under par with only 49 Premier League goals in 2015/16 (the least number of goals scored since 1989/90). Which logically made fans and pundits say that the style of play was boring. A fourth-place league finish in the first season led to the return of Champions League football. However, United were unable to reach the knockout stage of the prestigious competition. A fifth-place league finish during his second season sealed his fate. He was dismissed a day after winning the FA Cup.

Mourinho: wanting quick and guaranteed success

Wanting success to quickly return to United, the club searched for a manager who could do that and ended up appointing José Mourinho. With the serial-winning manager being known for his pragmatic approach that gives results. The Portuguese brought immediate success by winning the Europa League, League Cup and Community Shield in 2016/17. As Europa League champions, United qualified for the Champions League. Which was needed, because their sixth-place league finish was not enough. It was also worse than van Gaal’s league performance the season prior. However, Mourinho stayed on and despite not winning a trophy in 2017/18, he managed United to the second place. An achievement he later considered ‘one of the best jobs’ of his career, saying that ‘people don’t know what is going on behind the scenes’.

By winning 58 percent of his 144 matches and collecting 1.97 points per match his stats come closest to those of Ferguson. Who had a win percentage of 60 percent across 1490 matches (2.02 points per game). Yet, United dismissed Mourinho after a 3-1 loss at Anfield in December 2018. The loss meant United were 19 points behind the league leaders and had registered its worst start to a season since 1990. Furthermore, United conceded more goals after 17 matches as they had the whole previous season. Add to that an unattractive style of play and players no longer backing Mourinho, and the dismissal was not unfounded.

Record of Manchester United managers since Sir Alex Ferguson²

Open-heart surgery required

Former United striker Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (126 goals in 366 matches) took over as interim manager. In March 2019, United decided to appoint the Norwegian on a permanent basis. Of all United managers since Ferguson, Solskjaer has managed the most games (168), but he too was dismissed in November 2021.

United then appointed Ralf Rangnick, ‘one of the most respected coaches and innovators in European football’, as interim manager until the end of the season. After which he would have a consultancy role for a further two seasons. At the time Rangnick said ‘the squad is full of talent and has a great balance of youth and experience’. However, the German uncovered exactly where United was at, once in office. Near the end of his manager tenure, Rangnick said that the club needed open-heart surgery, with minor amendments not being enough. In addition, the club required strong leadership and teamwork which went beyond just the manager.

Going Dutch again

When Erik ten Hag was appointed as manager the following season, Rangnick did not take on his intended consultancy role. Yet, his words were painfully true. Something ten Hag admitted was true in 2024 and knew full well when starting out.

The Dutchman came off a successful period at Ajax where he won six trophies and reached the Champions League semifinal. In addition, he played some great attacking football and established a team consisting of experienced players and talented youth. However, at United it has not gone as smoothly. Despite winning the League Cup, FA Cup and a third-place league finish (2022/23), the club also registered the worst start to the season since 1989 in September 2023. With several high value transfers not performing. It has led to fans, former players and the media asking for his dismissal on various occasions

At the end of 2023/24, it was unclear whether ten Hag would stay on. There were rumours he would be sacked after the FA Cup win, in a similar fashion as in which fellow Dutchman van Gaal was dismissed.

However, after careful consideration and meetings with potential replacements, United decided to stick with ten Hag for the 2024/25 season. Including making significant changes to his backroom staff. So far, the doubts have not disappeared with ten Hag’s future discussed at a seven-hour executive meeting in October 2024. Which came off the back of United recording the worst start to a season after seven games in 35 years (1989/99).

Are managers given enough time?

Apart from Moyes, Ferguson’s successors have all been given at least two seasons. Which is more time than some other clubs have given their managers. Yet, the question is whether it is enough.

Yes, none of the managers appointed (with at least 10 matches in charge) have truly come close to Ferguson’s stats. But in 1989, three years after his appointment, fan protests asked for Ferguson’s sacking as well. With United having a terrible start to the season after finishing 11th the season prior. The club sticked with the Scotsman and he turned fortunes around resulting in his illustrious list of honours at the club.

At Arsenal, a similar thing happened with Mikel Arteta. The young Spaniard’s first Premier League seasons were also below expectations, including ranking eighth (twice) and fifth. But since, the club is on an upward trajectory with a clear playing identity, two second place finishes, and the potential to structurally compete for trophies.

No time and patience

Time and patience are not clubs’ strong suit though with immense pressure from the outside to perform in the short run. In addition, there are commercial and financial interests. Missing out on the Champions League for example, can have major consequences for a club’s revenue and ability to attract high-quality players.

United is one of the highest revenue generating clubs. Without Champions League revenue, they still generated £648.5 million in revenue in 2022/23. Which ranked them fifth, £74.5 million below the highest revenue generating club Real Madrid.

However, in recent years they have reported losses, including a net loss of £113.2 million over 2023/24.³ £84.5 million more than the £28.7 million net loss in 2022/23 and taking the total losses over the past five years to over £370 million. As not all spending is included in the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules, United do not seem to have to worry about possible penalties like the point-deduction for Everton in 2023/24 for now.

Manchester United’s net losses between 2021/22 and 2023/24³

Off-field downfall

Yet, the losses and the way the ten Hag-situation have been handled are characteristic for how the club has been doing off the field in recent times. Former managers and insiders have hinted at how these off-the-field issues negatively impact results. Mourinho mentioned it when he said people do not know what is going on behind the scenes. While van Gaal told ten Hag to consider turning down the manager’s job because United is a commercial club. Implying they are more concerned with commerce than being a true football club.

This lack of adequate ‘football’ people may have contributed or caused the club’s downfall over the last decade. Just as not enough investments were made in the right personnel, infrastructure has been neglected as well. With Old Trafford and the training grounds reportedly in dire need of major upgrades and replacements.

New people, new future

To address these issues, United has made several changes. The most prominent being an ownership change with INEOS’ Sir Jim Ratcliffe buying a 27.7 percent stake in the club in a deal worth £1.25 billion. Aiming to take the club back to the top of English and European football, Ratcliff has been given sporting control.

One of the changes on the agenda, are plans to build a new stadium. With Ratcliffe’s deal including £237 million for future stadium investments. Furthermore, several cost-saving strategies have been implemented. During the summer of 2024, 250 employees were cut, just as the annual Christmas party. In addition, United has agreed with Ferguson to end his ambassador role for the club, for which he was reportedly paid £2.16 million per year.

Organisational wise, United appointed Omar Berrada as new chief executive after his departure from rivals Manchester City. While they poached sporting director Dan Ashworth from Newcastle United. Both were put on gardening leave before making the switch.

Getting transfers right for the right price

Having new and proven people within the organisational setup could help United get back to where they would like to be. One important aspect will be their transfer dealings. Something that has been scrutinised a lot in recent years, with a long list of failed and unlucky transfers for which they often seem to have overpaid.

Since 2013/14, United has paid above market value for 10 of each season’s highest incoming transfer (out of 12). Only Donny van de Beek (€39 million from Ajax), and Jadon Sancho (€85 million from Dortmund) were bought below market value. Van de Beek never made an impact at Old Trafford and left for Girona in the summer of 2024 after two loan spells. While Sancho is at Chelsea, his second loan spell, after a fallout with manager ten Hag.

Paul Pogba was acquired for €105 million from Juventus in 2016, which was €35 million above market value. A transfer that raised eyebrows since Pogba was a former United academy graduate and left for Juventus for free four years prior. In 2022, he moved to Juventus on a free again, while he had an estimated market value of €48 million.

Going for what is known

Van Gaal had several unsuccessful transfers as well. Some of whom did not last long at United. Ángel Di María, for example, came from Real Madrid (€75 million) in 2014. The Argentinian could never really find his footing at the club under van Gaal though. After his family fell victim to a robbery, he moved to PSG (€63 million). While former Barcelona goalie Víctor Valdés came to United the same year, before leaving the club on loan a year later.

Bastian Schweinsteiger (€9 million), Memphis Depay (€34 million) and Morgan Schneiderlin (€35 million) were just a few of the players bought in 2015. But all had to move on the following season when Mourinho took over. With the Portuguese even freezing out Schweinsteiger.

By buying amongst others Schweinsteiger, Depay and Valdés, van Gaal went for players he had worked with before. A transfer strategy many managers employ, just like bringing in fellow countrymen. Ten Hag has done so to the extreme. In the 2024/25 squad, eight out of 28 players have an Ajax or Dutch background. Which has led to scrutiny, especially given the current results.

2024/25 Manchester United players with an Ajax or Dutch background²

It does seem like United is slowly changing its transfer strategy and trying to build a solid squad for the long term. For only the third time since 2000, did United sell for over €100 million (summer 2024: €103 million from eight sales).

Whether the new owners, personnel and strategy will eventually lead to a new successful era for Manchester United remains to be seen. For now, it is still gloom at United, as the 2024/25 season has started with another negative record and transfers not meeting expectations.