How Often Does The Favourite Win The Grand National?
When it comes to horse racing, it would be easy to assume that the bookmakers would absolutely hate it when a horse with long odds wins a major race. After all, the longer the odds are the more likely it is that the payout will be really big for them. Yet in reality, of course, very few people place massive bets on horses with huge odds unless they know something that the rest of us don’t. Lots of people will bet on the favourite, however, meaning that bookies are far more exposed to losses across the board, even if the odds on the favourite are quite low.
Think about it this way. One person having a £100,000 bet on a 40/1 offering will win £4 million. Yet one-hundred thousand people having a £50 wager on a 2/1 shot will win £10 million. Which is why the bookmakers absolutely hate it when the favourite wins, given that the latter scenario is far more likely to occur than the latter.
All of which obviously begs the questions, just how often do the favourites win the big races? The answer is a complex one, with any number of variables needing to be taken into account. There are some races that feature only a few horses, for example, so the favourite is more likely to win just in sheer terms of numbers. Other times the race might be open enough to mean that any number of horses could win it and there are either joint-favourites or most of the horses odds have very little between them.
There’s also the fact that sometimes something is a favourite because the bookies really think it’s going to win easily and price it accordingly, whilst other times it might just be being backed heavily so the bookmakers drop the odds to discourage people from betting on it, thereby reducing their liability. The best race to look at when it comes to the favourites is the Grand National, with the field for the race normally being so big that the favourite can change from one minute to the next.
About The Grand National
Very quickly, it’s just worth telling you a little bit about the Grand National and why it’s such a much-loved event. After all, there may well be some of you that aren’t really into horse racing and don’t know why it is that so many people who don’t bet on any other race though the rest of the year choose to tune in for this particular jump racing event.
Hosted at Aintree Racecourse in a suburb of the city of Liverpool, the Grand National is run every April and takes place over four miles and five-hundred and fourteen yards. The horses taking part in it need to jump over thirty fences during two laps of the course, with many of those fences having their own personality. There’s the likes of Beecher’s Brook, for example, which is five foot tall and has a landing side that’s lower than the take-off side. There’s also The Chair, arguably the best-known of all of the fences. It is the only fence on the course that has ever seen a person lose their life, which they did in 1862.
The fences you’ll find horses jumping at Aintree during the Grand National are taller than the fences at pretty much any other National Hunt event and that fact, combined with the length of the course itself, means that many people in the industry see it as the best possible test that a horse and its rider can face. It has been broadcast live on free-to-air television since 1960, which is probably part of why it captures the public imagination. The fact that field can include up to forty different horses also adds to the excitement, with long-odds horses winning on occasion and adding to the sense that it’s a race that anyone can win. The most famous example being a horse named Foinavon, who was 100/1 at the start of the race and lagging behind all other horses midway through, but managed to win when most other horses were involve in a pile-up at the twenty-third fence, which is now named after him.
Should You Bet On The Favourite?
|Year||Starting Price Favourite||Odds||Final Position|
|1997||Go Ballistic||7/1||p/u at 29th Fence|
|1999||Fiddling The Facts||6/1||Fell at Beecher’s Brook|
|2000||Dark Stranger||9/1||u/s Rider at 3rd Fence|
|2001||Edmond / Inis Cara / Moral Support (Joint-Favourites)||10/1||Fell at The Chair / Fell at 4th Fence / Refused at Canal Turn|
|2003||Shotgun Willy||7/1||p/u After 21st Fence|
|2004||Clan Royal / Bindaree / Joss Naylor / Jurancon II (Joint Favourites)||10/1||2nd / u/s Rider at 6th Fence / p/u at 19th Fence / Fell at 4th Fence|
|2006||Hedgehunter / Clan Royal (Joint-Favourites)||5/1||2nd / 3rd|
|2007||Point Barrow / Joes Edge / Monkerhostin (Joint-Favourites)||8/1||Fell at 1st Fence / p/u at 20th Fence / Refused 7th Fence|
|2008||Comply or Die / Cloudy Lane (Joint-Favourites)||7/1||WON / 6th|
|2010||Don’t Push It / Big Fella Thanks (Joint-Favourites)||10/1||WON / 4th|
|2011||The Midnight Club||15/2||6th|
|2012||Seabass / Shakalakaboomboom (Joint-Favourites)||8/1||3rd / 9th|
|2014||Double Seven / Teaforthree (Joint-Favourites)||10/1||3rd / u/s Rider at 13th Fence|
|2016||Many Clouds / The Last Samuri (Joint-Favourites)||8/1||16th / 2nd|
|2018||Total Recall||7/1||p/u at 27th Fence|
|2021||Cloth Cap||11/2||p/u at 28th Fence|
Key: u/s – Unseated | p/u – Pulled Up
You’ll have gotten a taste for how crazy the Grand National can be from the last section, perhaps leading to wonder whether or not it’s ever worth betting on the favourite for the race. The short answer to that question is probably ‘no’, as we’ll explain now. It perhaps says something that the first-ever running of the Grand National, according to historians of the event, was won by a horse named ‘Lottery’. Indeed, many people often equate the race to another popular institution in the UK with the word ‘National’ in its title, the National Lottery.
It’s all well and good going off what people say about the event conversationally, but what to do the actual stats show? The short answer is that the favourite has only won the race on ten occasions since the end of the Second World War. Even more interestingly, in thirty-seven of those races they haven’t even managed to complete the course. Where, then, has the favourite finished? In the above table we look at the races back as far as 1994, exploring the Starting Price of the favourite and where they actually ended up.
Odds Of Horses That Win The Grand National
|Year||National Winner||Age||Starting Price|
|2008||Comply or Die||9||7/1|
|2010||Don’t Push It||10||10/1|
|2014||Pineau De Re||11||25/1|
|2016||Rule The World||9||33/1|
|2017||One For Arthur||8||14/1|
Having now looked at the list of the favourites for the last twenty-six races (with 1993’s race being made void because of a false start), what does it tell us?
There are two main things that stand out, with the first of them being the fact that all but two of the six favourites that went on to win the race was priced at 7/1. Something to perhaps bear in mind in future instances of the race! If the favourite starts the race at 7/1 then it might well be worth lumping on, given that only Go Ballistic, Shotgun Willy, Cloudy Lane and Butler’s Cabin went off as favourites at that price and did win, with Cloudy Lane missing out to another 7/1 Joint-Favourite.
Another thing worth bearing in mind is that, of the ten favourites that have won the race since the end of the Second World War, six of them have done so over the last twenty-four years. Is that a sign, perhaps, that the race is getting easier? Or does it indicate that bookmakers are getting better at realising the favourites?
The fact that only one horse has won any of the last nine races as favourite suggests that perhaps the former is more likely to be true than the latter. Even then that horse was Tiger Roll, cited as the greatest National horse since Red Rum.
In recent years very specific attempts have been made to make the race much safer and more in-line with what campaigners would like from the racecourse, meaning that more horses are likely to finish the race, including the favourites.
Things You Should Look Out For
If betting on the favourite for the Grand National is unlikely to return you many wins, what sort of information should you keep an eye out for in order to make the best informed decision? Obviously you can’t rely on a 7/1 favourite running after all!
The first thing you’ll want to do is check out the age of the horse. No horse aged seven has won the race since 1940, with few aged eight doing all that well either other than in recent times. You want a horse with experience, but age isn’t a guarantee of success given that those aged thirteen or up don’t tend to do very well either. Here’s a look at the age of the winner over the past twenty-four years:
Over the past twenty-six races, then, there have been two twelve-year-old winners, five eleven-year-old winners, seven ten-year-old winners, eight nine-year-old winners and four eight-year-old winners. The implication, therefore, is that a horse aged around nine or ten years of age is well-placed to put in a decent run at the National.
The starting-price odds also hint at the idea that middle to long-shots can have just as much a chance of winning as the favourites. That is most clear in the 100/1 shot Mon Mome winning in 2009, the year that the favourite’s Starting Price was 7/1. Average odds of the winner over those years are around 22/1.
Other things to look out for include links to the Irish. Nine winners since 2000 have originated from stables in Ireland, whilst seventeen of the last twenty-two Grand National winners were born on the Emerald Isle. You’ll also want to keep an eye out for horses that no how to jump. That might sound like a daft thing to say, but twenty of the last twenty-two winners have unseated their riders or fallen no more than twice in their careers. Finally, keep an eye out for horses that have had a run out recently.
Rest isn’t as good for National victors as finding a rhythm, with twenty-one of the previous twenty-seven winners having had a race within the previous month or so.