European Super League Betting Specials: Will It Happen? Odds Favour Creation By 2023
The announcement by 12 of Europe’s biggest and richest clubs that they aim to form a breakaway Super League at the earliest opportunity, as early as August 2021, has sparked outrage across football and politics. The news came just a day before UEFA announced their new expanded 36-team Champions League format in an apparent power grab by the biggest clubs unhappy with how revenue is distributed in these elite competitions.
The issue ultimately surrounds the fact that Europe’s leading teams believe they add the most to elite club competitions but they feel they are being asked to do more (by playing more Champions League games) for a smaller slice of the pie. Pretty much everyone other than the 12 clubs involved have condemned the move as being greedy, disgraceful, selfish, damaging and everything in between. UEFA have said they will ban any players involved from international competitions and the Premier League have hinted they could ban English clubs that take part from playing.
The idea of an European Super League (ESL) has been muted before, although never has it got to this stage. Despite the condemnation it seems this time there is a fair chance it could go ahead. These clubs are betting on the fact that competitions like the Champions League and World Cup will not survive without these clubs and players and that could lead to a permeant breakaway.
Of course you can’t bet on ESL matches or winners yet as it doesn’t exist but you can bet on whether it will actually happen, which is what we are covering here.
Special Bets On The European Super League
There are a few bookies providing markets for the new ESL but as with most special bets there is only one leading brand, Paddy Power (along with sister brand Betfair). At the time of writing the chances of one of the 6 breakaway English clubs playing in the new league by 2025 is around 5/6. The odds of them not playing a match before 2025 is also 5/6. Therefore, it is pretty much even money each way suggesting at the minute that the bookies do think there is a fair chance of this happening.
Conversely you can bet on teams not to play in the Champions League next season (around 13/5) or not to play in the Premier League (around 4/1). This uncertainty has also shortened the odds on other teams to win the Premier League next year should the 6 teams break away and not be involved. West Ham have shortened to as little as 14/1 and Leeds 20/1.
BetVictor has also released a couple of markets around the formation of the ESL with the odds of the competition beginning before 2023 being odds on at 8/11 and the odds of it not forming by 2023 set at evens.
Odds Favour The Creation Of The ESL
If you read the news right now and the reaction to the formation of the ESL you would assume it is a non-starter. Even the Prime Minister and his government are saying they will not allow it to happen, although in reality this is just a freebee for politicians jumping on the public outrage wagon.
It is obvious from looking at the special bets markets around the new event that the bookies believe it is more likely to happen than not. Perhaps not immediately but with the odds favourable for the tournament to be created before 2023 it seems that the betting companies believe that despite wide objections the ESL will go ahead within a couple of years.
Hold Off Betting On Next Season
While we have no idea if the bookies odds around the creation of the ESL are any where near correct what we can say is that the news has sent the outright markets for the 2021/2022 season into turmoil.
Many of the special markets surrounding the ESL are to do with other teams winning the Premier League or Champions League if the big teams are banned. This means the likes of West Ham and Everton are currently priced very low at 14/1.
If you plan to bet on the winner of the Premier League or Champions League next year it would be wise to wait until things have settled and we know more. If the big 6 do take part in the Premier League next year you could regret taking the likes of West Ham at this price now, with the big 6 involved their price will likely be 250/1+.