World Cup 2018 Knockout Stage Betting Tips and Previews
The World Cup group stages are over and what a couple of weeks it’s been. The introduction of the Video Assistant Referee to the tournament has led to more than a couple of controversial moments, though it’s generally been used well and has allowed the officials to get more decisions correct than incorrect at this stage. We’ve had goals disallowed correctly for being offside when they might have stood otherwise, to say nothing of penalties given and then rescinded or not given and then awarded. Though it’s not everyone’s cup of tea, if it’s going to mean more game-changing decisions being called according to the rules then it’s difficult to put forward a coherent argument against the technology other than the fact that some people just don’t like it.
Away from VAR, the competition has allowed for some genuinely thrilling moments. Not many people thought Russia would even make it out of the group, for example, yet they did so relatively comfortably in the end and seem to have fresh juice in their legs. Then there’s the shock of what happened to the defending champions, with South Korea beating the Germans 2-0 and sending them packing. That will have thrown a few coupons out of the window, although it perhaps shouldn’t have been such a surprise; after all, Italy won the World Cup in 2006 and then exited at the group stage in 2010, Spain won it in 2010 and then failed to make it out of the group four years later and now Germany have completed a bizarre hat-trick, of sorts. So what bets might you be looking to place with some of the favourites gone?
How Each Half Of The Knockout Stage Draw Is Split
One thing you’ll want to think about before placing any bets on the outright winner of the tournament is the manner in which the groups are splitting up. The way the World Cup works means that we already know which teams could go through to face each other in the quarter-finals and semi-finals, should they make through the last sixteen.
Here’s how the two sides of the draw are looking:
Side A: England – Colombia – Sweden – Switzerland – Spain – Russia – Croatia – Denmark
Side B: Uruguay – Portugal – France – Argentina – Brazil – Mexico – Belgium – Japan
To make it clear, just in case you’re not au fait with the way the tournament works, the two sides of the draw are now set in stone. That means that teams from Side A will play each other on the way to the semi-finals, with teams from Side B doing the same. The final will therefore essentially be the best team from Side A against the best team from Side B.
As sometimes happens at World Cups, winning the group can actually see teams get a less favourable draw than coming second in it. That’s evidenced by the fact that Side B contains the European Championship winners Portugal, the most successful side in World Cup history in Brazil and a Spain side that many fancy to win it this year.
Last 16 Matches
The first place to start in exploring which teams might make the final is by looking at who is likely to make it out of the last sixteen. Here’s how the matches line up heading into the knockout stages:
France v Argentina
This one is likely to be something of a war of attrition. Despite having some excellent players at his disposal, Didier Deschamps has turned the French side into one that more closely resembles Burnley than Brazil. He’s opted for a defence first strategy that means the games involving his side have been less than thrilling thus far. They finished top of their group with seven points, but they scored just three goals in the process.
Argentina, meanwhile, were on the brink of crashing out of the competition after drawing with Iceland in the opening game and then losing comprehensively to Croatia on Matchday Two. They got a less than convincing 2-1 win over Nigeria on the final day to ensure their qualification, but few people will have been lumping on them to win the tournament as a result. Rumours emerged after the Croatia loss that the manager was being sidelined and no longer calling the shots, though it’s a nation that depends pretty heavily on Lionel Messi regardless of who’s the boss.
Prediction: France To Win On Penalties
Uruguay v Portugal
Uruguay were impressive when you look at the stats, thanks to the fact that they won all three of their group games and scored five goals. Look a little closer, though, and you’ll see that three of them came against ten man Russia in a dead rubber of a game. Luis Suarez looked well off the pace in the first match but was back to his best against the hosts, which is handy given the amount of stock the nation puts in him. You’d think with a front line including the former Liverpool man and Edinson Cavani that they’d be a threat, but four of their five goals came from set-pieces.
When it comes to Portugal, you’d be forgiven for thinking that their European Championship victory combined with the five goals they’ve scored so far in this tournament that they’d be feeling quietly confident. Yet they’ve also conceded four times so far in Russia for a goal difference of just one, so no one in the Iberian peninsula will be feeling overly happy to have to go up against a Uruguay side that has yet to concede. This match isn’t likely to be overly fun to watch and might well end up being the battle of the two superstars. Does Cristiano Ronaldo have what it takes to keep dragging his country forwards?
Uruguay To Win In 90 Minutes
Russia v Spain
It’s easy to forget now that the tournament is well underway and being enjoyed by everyone that Russia had a lot riding on it. Even away from the political controversies that are dogging them, the hosts have been accused of state-sponsored doping in the likes of the Olympics for years. Their progression from the group was impressive enough, but can they go one step further and make it the quarter-finals? If they do then the excitement around the place will reach fever pitch, with the crowd likely to be extremely partisan for this one.
For Spain, they seem to have put the disappointment of exiting at the group stage four years ago behind them and have yet to be beaten this time around. Like Portugal, they’ve got a goal difference of just one, however, thanks to the six scored and five conceded. They’ve played some lovely stuff at times but it will be interesting to see if they’ve got what it takes to get the better of a Russian team that loves to run and run. You feel as though the seeming superior fitness of the Russians means that the Spaniards will have to do it in the 90 if they’re going to do it at all.
Spain To Win In 90 Minutes
Croatia v Denmark
Croatia have been genuinely impressive so far during the tournament and are many people’s dark horse for an outside chance at the Jules Rimet. They won all three of their group games and conceded just one goal along the way, meaning that they’ll be favourites for their side of the draw if they can dispatch Denmark easily enough.
The Danes made hard work of getting out of one of the easiest groups in the tournament, though their cheerleaders would point to the fact that they’re still unbeaten and have only conceded once thus far. They’ve only scored twice, however, which is a big part of their problem. Theoretically this should be a formality for the Croats.
Croatia To Win In 90 Minutes
Brazil v Mexico
This is sure to be the most entertaining and exciting match of the last sixteen, with both teams enjoying playing open and expansive football. Brazil haven’t been overly impressive and yet have still scored five whilst conceding just once. If this were Germany the pundits would be saying that they’re looking ominous, but the Germans’ exit from the tournament means that the Samba crew are the favourites to lift the trophy.
Mexico have simultaneously entertained and not actually played that well, scoring just three times and conceding on four occasions for a goal difference of minus one. The outcome of this match will likely depend on what Tite decides to do with the Brazilian team, given that his persistence with Gabriel Jesus over Roberto Firmino has made them look like they lack a cutting edge up front. It’s difficult to see past a Brazilian win, though Mexico won’t make it easy.
Brazil To Win In 90 Minutes
Sweden v Switzerland
If ever a match looked as though it’s got ‘penalty shoot-out’ written all over it then it’s surely this one. Sweden and Switzerland have both scored five goals apiece thus far, though the Swiss have looked more vulnerable in defense thanks to their four goals conceded. They got a 2-1 win over Serbia that was as much about national pride and internal politics as it was about the football, so there are question marks over whether they can play to that level again.
For Sweden it’s been something of a new era, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic having retired from international football after Euro 2016. It’s actually led to a far more balanced look for the Swedes, given that they are no longer looking for the self-proclaimed Lion of Football every time they go forward. They’re still not all that impressive, though, having lost 2-1 to ten man Germany with virtually the last kick of the game.
Switzerland To Win On Penalties
Belgium v Japan
Belgium is the main team that is rivalling Croatia for the title of favourites for Side A of the remaining contestants in the World Cup. Roberto Martinez hasn’t yet proven that he’s got what it takes to compete at the highest level of the game as a manager, so he’ll be hoping that he can get his side swinging in the knockout stages. He’s arguably got one of the best set of players remaining in the tournament at his disposal, but can he use it?
Japan is about the most vanilla side left in the competition, with their statistics from the group stage showing that they’ve won one, lost one, drawn one and scored four goals at the same time as conceding four goals. They made it this far courtesy of Fair Play, finishing on the same number of points as Senegal but having been shown less yellow cards than the Africans. In terms of ‘shocks’, it’s tricky to see one coming here.
Belgium To Win In 90 Minutes
Colombia v England
Colombia’s World Cup got off to a rough start, with the South Americans losing their first game after having a man sent off after just three minutes. They bounced back with a convincing win over Poland and then beat Senegal 1-0 to ensure their place in the last sixteen. Their group wasn’t the strongest, but the two goals they conceded both came in that opening match against Japan. They’ve scored five, so England’s defence will need to be in form to stop them from making things tricky.
English supporters are prone to either completely under-estimating their side’s ability or else over-estimating it to a ridiculous degree. The group stage hasn’t really said anything one way or the other, with the victories being impressive enough but coming against teams that are, frankly, rubbish. Since the Three Lions won the World Cup in 1966 they’ve beaten just five teams in the knockout stages: Paraguay, Belgium, Cameroon, Denmark and Ecuador. This isn’t, therefore, the formality that some people are hoping for. That said, this is a talented group and they’ll feel confident that they can at least make the quarter-finals.
England To Win In Extra-Time
Likely Quarter Final, Semi Final and Final
If all of the predictions above come to pass then the quarter-finals will look like this:
Uruguay v France
Spain v Croatia
Brazil v Belgium
Switzerland v England
That would lead to some tasty looking matches that will open the draw up nicely for a potential surprise winner if the ball falls fortunately for teams that some don’t expect to do well. Here’s how the semis might end up looking:
France v Brazil
Croatia v England
Could England dare to dream of a final against Brazil?
Likely Winner: Brazil (15/4)
Outside Winner: Croatia (12/1)
England’s Patriotic Chances: (8/1)
Betting Tips For Other World Markets
In the matches up to the end of the group stage there were 122 goals in 48 games, giving a goal:game of 2.54 – consider betting on over 2.5 goal markets.- Nine own goals have been scored. That is just under one every two games so far. Own goals are counted in correct score bets but not in goalscorer bets.
- Penalty’s are a good shout with 24 awarded and 18 scored up to the end of the group stage, a 75% success rate with one one every two games. Penalties have been awarded at the highest rate since 1966.
- Ten of those 24 penalties above have resulted through VAR review, VAR overruling decisions is common, consider VAR insurance (available on our world cup offers page).
- Yellow cards have also hit an average of 3.4 a game, another thing to consider in over / under betting and especially when using the newer build a bet features. Red cards are low at 0.06 each game. The highest number of cards in a match so far is 8.
