2018-19 Champions League Betting Tips & Preview | Group Stage & Final Winners
The UEFA Champions League is considered to be the pinnacle of football in Europe. Whilst the name is somewhat misleading, given that the competition is open to teams other than just the champions from the various leagues around the continent, it’s still the toughest club competition going and its tests both the talent and the depth of squads from across the top leagues. Even if there are a couple of so-called ‘weaker’ teams in the Group Stages, they’re normally dealt with fairly swiftly and by the time the knockout rounds get underway there’s nothing but the cream of the crop left in.
In order for a team to win the tournament they will need to play six Group Stage matches, two Last Sixteen games, two Quarter-Finals, two Semi-Finals and the Final. That’s a total of thirteen matches, which doesn’t seem too outrageous in and of itself. Yet when you remember that teams have to play these games at the same time that their own domestic seasons are taking place, you can suddenly see exactly why it’s so tricky to win. The Champions League final is the last game of the campaign, meaning that it is not only a chance to win silverware but also the showpiece event of the season. Here’s a little look at this year’s version of the tournament, exploring which teams are most likely to make it out of the groups and potentially lift the trophy.
Below is a look at each group individually, with prices for the winning team To Win Group, the second-place side To Qualify and the third and fourth-place sides Not To Qualify.
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2018-19 Champions League Group Stage Betting
Group A: Atlético Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Monaco, Club Brugge
Club Brugge are being seen as the whipping boys of Group A, but they won the Belgian First Division A by twelve points last season and are in the competition on merit. Even so, the Belgian league isn’t as strong as Ligue 1, which isn’t as competitive as the Bundesliga, which isn’t as good as La Liga. For that reason, it’s difficult to see any major surprises in this group and you’d imagine that it will finish in the order of the pots that the teams came out of. Borussia Dortmund aren’t slouches, though, and they could give Atlético a run for their money.
To Win Group A:
- Atlético Madrid (1/2)
- Borussia Dortmund (10/3)
- Monaco (5/1)
- Club Brugge (33/1)
Predicted Finishing Order:
- Atlético Madrid (1/2)
- Borussia Dortmund (8/15)
- Monaco (8/13)
- Club Brugge (1/10)
Group B: Barcelona, Tottenham Hotspur, PSV Eindhoven, Inter Milan
From an English point of view, Spurs were massively unfortunate with their draw for the Champions League Group Stage. Barcelona are seen as one of the favourites to win the entire competition, whilst PSV won the Eredivisie by four points from Ajax last time out. Inter Milan, meanwhile, were the team that nobody wanted in Pot 4. Spurs did well to make it out of a tricky group last year and will perhaps have felt that they should have made it past Juventus in their Last Sixteen matchup. They didn’t make any summer acquisitions, however, and have already had a tricky start to their Premier League campaign.
To Win Group B:
- Barcelona (4/9)
- Tottenham Hotspur (3/1)
- Inter Milan (6/1)
- PSV Eindhoven (50/1)
Predicted Finishing Order:
- Barcelona (4/9)
- Internazionale Milano (13/10)
- Tottenham Hotspur (13/8)
- PSV Eindhoven (1/12)
Group C: Paris Saint-Germain, Napoli, Liverpool, Crvena zvezda
Group C features last year’s losing finalists Liverpool, who only lost once on their way to the Final in Kiev before a goalkeeping disaster and a wonder goal from Gareth Bale saw Real Madrid lift the trophy at their expense. Paris Saint-Germain will see themselves as favourites, but Napoli’s manager Carlo Ancelotti has European experience, winning once and losing once to fellow Group C-ers Liverpool when he was AC Milan manager. Crvena zvezda, better known to most as Red Star Belgrade, have European pedigree but won’t be overly happy with the group they’ve drawn. The way this group goes will likely depend on how seriously each club takes their league campaign.
To Win Group C:
- Paris Saint-Germain (10/11)
- Liverpool (11/8)
- Napoli (6/1)
- Crvena zvezda (150/1)
Predicted Finishing Order:
- Liverpool (11/8)
- Paris Saint-Germain (1/6)
- Napoli (4/6)
- Crvena zvezda (1/100)
Group D: Lokomotiv Moskva, Porto, Schalke, Galatasaray
This is seen by many as the group that is made up of all of the teams that other sides would have wanted to draw from each of the pots. That means that it’s actually quite a hard one to predict, with no standout sides putting themselves forward as the likely runaway winners. Neither Russia nor Turkey are fun places to travel, giving Lokomotiv Moscow and Galatasaray something of a psychological advantage. Porto have won the tournament in relatively recent times, doing so with José Mourinho back in 2004, but that stands for nothing nowadays. Arguably the toughest group to place a bet on, given that it could go any which way.
To Win Group D:
- Porto (5/4)
- Schalke (2/1)
- Galatasaray (5/1)
- Lokomotiv Moskva (11/2)
Predicted Finishing Order:
- Porto (5/4)
- Schalke (8/13)
- Lokomotiv Moskva (1/2)
- Galatasaray (4/7)
Group E: Bayern München, Benfica, Ajax, AEK Athens
Bayern Munich are a confusing side, being absolutely dominant in Germany practically forever but struggling to translate that success to the Champions League; they’ve only won the tournament twice since the turn of the millennium but have won the Bundesliga twelve times during the same period. Benfica will fancy themselves as the second-favourites to make it out of the group, but Ajax reached the final of the Europa League two seasons ago and so will feel they can give them a run for their money. AEK Athens are mainly there to make up the numbers, but they’ll be hoping that they can cause an upset. After all, Benfica failed to make it out of a relatively easy group last time around.
To Win Group E:
- Bayern München (1/7)
- Benfica (15/2)
- Ajax (10/1)
- AEK Athens (80/1)
Predicted Finishing Order:
- Bayern München (1/7)
- Ajax (6/5)
- Benfica (10/11)
- AEK Athens (1/8)
Group F: Manchester City, Shakhtar Donetsk, Lyon, Hoffenheim
Given their desire to be the first club to win back-to-back Premier League titles since their neighbours did so a decade ago, Manchester City will have been quietly delighted with their group. There’s nothing in there to cause Pep Guardiola’s men any worries, but all three of the other sides will fancy their chances of finishing as runners-up. Shakhtar Donetsk achieved exactly that after having been drawn in the same group as the Cityzens last year, whilst neither Lyon nor Hoffenheim played in the competition in 2017-2018. If there’s to be something of a shock here then you’d fancy it to be over which team finishes third and disappears off into the oblivion of the Europa League.
To Win Group F:
- Manchester City (2/11)
- Lyon (8/1)
- Shakhtar Donetsk (12/1)
- Hoffenheim (16/1)
Predicted Finishing Order:
- Manchester City (2/11)
- Shakhtar Donetsk (2/1)
- Hoffenheim (4/11)
- Lyon (4/6)
Group G: Real Madrid, Roma, CSKA Moskva, Viktoria Plzeň
The defending Champions Real Madrid will be pretty pleased with their group, apart from the fact that they’ve got to travel to Moscow. Even that will be seen as more of an inconvenience than a major challenge for the team that has won this competition more than any other side, however. Roma will fancy their chances of pushing the Spanish club for top spot, having beaten Barcelona in the Quarter-Final stage last year and tested Liverpool at the Stadio Olimpico in the Semi-Final. They’re arguably a weaker team this time around, though, having lost their goalkeeper to the Merseyside club over the summer. That will give both CSKA Moscow and Viktoria Plzeň hope, though it’s unlikely to make any difference.
To win Group G:
- Real Madrid (1/6)
- Roma (9/2)
- CSKA Moskva (33/1)
- Viktoria Plzeň (40/1)
Predicted Finishing Order:
- Real Madrid (1/6)
- Roma (1/4)
- CSKA Moskva (1/7)
- Viktoria Plzeň (1/8)
Group H: Juventus, Manchester United, Valencia, Young Boys
If Group D is seen as an intriguing proposition because of the perceived weakness of all of the teams involved then the opposite is surely true here. Whilst Young Boys are rightly being seen as the side most likely to finish last, there’s no telling which of the other three sides will progress. Ordinarily Manchester United would be confident of progressing, but José Mourinho has a habit of seeing his sides self-destruct during his third season there and that’s the situation he’s in now. They also got knocked out of this competition by Sevilla last season and Valencia finished fifteen points clear of them in La Liga last time out. Juventus is the only side confident of progressing, with many wondering who will finish as their runners-up.
To Win Group H:
- Juventus (1/2)
- Manchester United (11/4)
- Valencia (11/2)
- Young Boys (100/1)
Predicted Finishing Order:
- Juventus (1/2)
- Valencia (6/5)
- Manchester United (11/5)
- Young Boys (1/66)
Knockout Phase
When it comes to the knockout phases of the Champions League, it’s difficult to make any sensible predictions without knowing who will be in the draw. That said, if the above predictions are correct then the two sides of the draw will look like this:
Pot One
Atlético Madrid – Barcelona – Liverpool – Porto – Bayern München – Manchester City – Real Madrid – Juventus
Pot Two
Borussia Dortmund – Internazionale Milano – Paris Saint-Germain – Schalke – Ajax – Shakhtar Donetsk – Roma – Valencia
Because country protection is still in place during the Last Sixteen round, certain teams can’t be drawn to face each other. As a result, none of Atlético Madrid, Real Madrid and Barcelona would be able to play against Valencia, whilst Bayern Munich will avoid Schalke and Borussia Dortmund. Juventus will miss out on the chance to play Roma and Inter Milan at this stage of the tournament, too.
As a result, here are the possible matches that could happen if the above predictions come true. It’s worth bearing in mind that the Champions League regularly throws up surprises, of course!
- Atlético Madrid versus any Pot 2 side except for Valencia
- Barcelona versus any Pot 2 side except for Valencia
- Liverpool versus any Pot 2 side
- Porto versus any Pot 2 side
- Bayern Munich versus any of Inter, Paris Saint-Germain, Ajax, Shakhtar Donetsk, Roma and Valencia
- Manchester City versus any Pot 2 side
- Real Madrid versus any Pot 2 side except for Valencia
- Juventus versus any Pot 2 side except for Roma and Inter Milan
Country protection is abandoned once the competition reaches the Quarter-Final stage, which often throws up some tasty ties. Liverpool versus Manchester City was the standout tie of the round last year, with the Reds prevailing thanks to a 3-0 win at Anfield and then a 2-1 victory over Guardiola’s men at The Etihad.
It’s a tie that very much has the feeling of the Liverpool against Chelsea draw that occurred time and again when Rafa Benitez and José Mourinho were in charge of their respective teams, so don’t be surprised if it crops up again this time around.
2019 Champions League Winners
Now that we’re into tricky territory in terms of predictions, it’s best to jump straight ahead to the final and look at the teams most likely to make it and some outsider bets that you might want to place.
Manchester City felt aggrieved at the way that decisions went against them in their Quarter-Final match against Liverpool last season, so they’ll be hoping that they can get a little bit more fortunate this time around and that that will be enough to carry them through to the final. At the time of writing we’re only four games in to the Premier League season, but City already find themselves two points adrift of both the Merseyside club and Chelsea at the top of the league. Will Pep focus on success in Europe over the Premier League?
City are 9/2 favourites for the Champions League title, whilst the bookies think that Barcelona are the side most likely to play City in the final and rate them at 6/1 to win it.
If you’re looking for a couple of longer odds bets to place then you might want to consider the defending champions Real Madrid at 9/1, whilst if you think the side that lost out to them last year might win the tournament for the sixth time this year then you can get 11/1 on Liverpool being victorious.
One bet that might tempt a few of you is surely the 12/1 you can find for Atlético Madrid to win the tournament, which is noteworthy ad the 2018-2019 final is being played in their Wanda Metropolitano home. Finally, if you want a really long-shot then going Each-Way on the 80/1 being offered on Borussia Dortmund might not be a terrible idea.
